Canada’s population is projected to grow significantly over the next 50 years, potentially reaching 80 million by 2074, according to new Statistics Canada data. This growth is expected even after the federal government’s decision to reduce immigration rates by 21% in 2025, a move aimed at easing pressure on housing and infrastructure.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the immigration cut in October 2024, with a short-term focus on stabilizing population growth. Statistics Canada predicts that while this reduction may cause a slight population decline from 2025 to 2026, migration will remain the key driver of growth over the long term. Under different scenarios, Canada’s population, currently estimated at 40.3 million, could grow to between 45.2 million and 80.8 million by 2074.
Regional Trends: Alberta Leads Growth
Alberta is expected to experience the largest population surge, with projections indicating a 24.9% to 56.1% increase by 2049. Other provinces, like Ontario and Saskatchewan, will also see steady growth, ranging from moderate to substantial depending on immigration and interprovincial migration patterns.
In contrast, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, and the Northwest Territories face potential population declines under low-growth scenarios. Newfoundland could shrink by 16.1%, while Quebec’s population might decrease by 3%. However, high-growth projections suggest possible population rebounds in these areas.
Urban and Provincial Outlooks
- Ontario: The province’s population is expected to grow between 5.7% and 38.7%, reflecting its continued appeal as a destination for immigrants and interprovincial movers.
- Manitoba and Saskatchewan: Both provinces are projected to see consistent growth across all scenarios, with increases of up to 35.8% and 38.9%, respectively.
- British Columbia: B.C. will likely see growth ranging from 6.7% to 39.9%, depending on migration trends.
Territorial Changes
The territories will experience mixed outcomes. Nunavut and Yukon are poised for growth of up to 33.9% and 32.1%, respectively, under high-growth scenarios. Meanwhile, the Northwest Territories could see a 9% population decline in a low-growth scenario but a 14.7% increase in a high-growth case.
While the federal government’s immigration policy aims to address immediate economic and housing challenges, Canada’s long-term population trajectory remains robust. Migration will continue to play a central role in shaping the nation’s demographic future, with significant regional variations highlighting the dynamic nature of Canada’s growth.