Exit poll projections for the 2025 Bihar Assembly election suggest a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party–Janata Dal (United) alliance, with most surveys indicating the ruling coalition could comfortably cross the majority mark of 122 seats. Multiple polling agencies, including P-Marq, Dainik Bhaskar, TIF Research and Matrize, show the National Democratic Alliance securing roughly 145 to 167 of the state’s 243 Assembly seats. The opposition Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal and backed by the Congress, is expected to finish a distant second with estimates between 70 and 108 seats depending on the poll.
A key subplot of this election was the much-watched debut of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party. Despite heightened attention and speculation that Kishor could emerge as a kingmaker, exit polls indicate almost no electoral breakthrough for his campaign. Most surveys predict zero seats for Jan Suraaj, while a few offer a maximum of one to five seats. This result, if confirmed by the final tally, would represent a significant disappointment for the strategist-turned-politician who entered the race positioning himself as an alternative to both major alliances.
Pollsters attribute the NDA’s projected performance largely to the enduring organisational strength of the BJP and JDU, combined with a divided opposition bloc. Within the Mahagathbandhan, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav was announced as the chief ministerial candidate, but analysts note ongoing internal tensions with the Congress over leadership and strategy. Exit polls also highlight that despite visible discontent on employment and inflation issues, the ruling coalition’s messaging and voter mobilisation remained effective in key regions. Voter turnout emerged as one of the defining features of this contest. The first phase recorded participation above 65 percent, while the second phase crossed 67 percent by late afternoon. High turnout historically has produced unpredictable outcomes in Bihar, leading analysts to caution that exit polls are projections, not results. Final voting numbers will be known when ballots are counted on November 14.
While exit polls often trigger political narratives ahead of the official verdict, all parties are treating the findings cautiously. Leaders across the spectrum have urged supporters to await the final counting day. For Prashant Kishor and Jan Suraaj, however, the projections suggest a moment of reflection — whether to continue the long road of grassroots expansion or rethink strategy entirely. The coming days will confirm whether Bihar is indeed set for another term of NDA leadership, or whether the actual results hold surprises beyond what exit polls predict.
